Harga bahan baku meroket, hulu dan hilir menjarah tambang lithium
There is no doubt that the hottest track in the capital market this year is new energy. As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have attracted more attention.
On November 22, CATL, the world's largest lithium-ion battery supplier, closed at 681.00 yuan per share, a record high, with a market value of 1.59 trillion yuan, second only to Kweichow Moutai in A-shares. Previously, the 58.2 billion "sky-high" fixed increase method of the CATL set a record for A-share private companies, which set off a heated market discussion.
The expansion of lithium-ion battery "one brother" is frequent, and at the same time, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed, which has seen the turbulent lithium battery industry.
Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and chairman of the Battery Hundred People's Association, told Fengkou Finance and Economics: "At present, the top companies have entered a new round of investment and expansion peaks, and second- and third-tier brands are also catching up with the first-tier companies. Power lithium-ion The global pattern of batteries may usher in a major change."
Peningkatan besar sebesar 45 miliar yuan, triliunan raksasa masih kekurangan uang?
From January to August this year, the global battery usage of CATL was 49.1GWh, with a market share of over 30 percent , ranking first in the world. Its third quarterly report shows that in the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue reached 73.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.73 percent ; the net profit attributable to the parent was 7.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.9 percent . In addition, in the first three quarters, its net inflow of operating cash flow was 28.686 billion yuan, and the book money fund had 80.735 billion yuan, far exceeding the total revenue.
Dapat dilihat dari data di atas bahwa era Ningde memiliki cadangan modal yang kaya dan kapasitas hematopoietik yang kuat.
However, the "not bad money" CATL announced in August that it would set an increase of 58.2 billion yuan, equivalent to its total net profit in the past 10 years, setting a record for fundraising by A-share private companies, causing many doubts. On the evening of November 15, CATL announced that it would lower the total amount of funds raised to 45 billion yuan.
Fengkou Finance and Economics found that the adjusted fixed increase method reduced 2 projects, namely the Ningde Times Huxi Li-ion Battery Expansion Project (Phase II) and the supplementary working capital of 9.3 billion yuan. Ningde Times explained that in order to improve the efficiency of capital use, the raised funds were invested in production construction projects and RD projects. The scale of the investment project, the company's financial situation and other factors were comprehensively considered, and the fixed increase fundraising method was adjusted.
Faktanya, sejak awal tahun ini, persaingan antar produsen baterai lithium-ion global sangat ketat. Pemerintah Korea Selatan sebelumnya telah mengumumkan bahwa mereka akan menginvestasikan 35 miliar dolar AS (223.332 miliar yuan) pada tahun 2030 untuk mengembangkan industri baterai kendaraan listriknya sendiri untuk bersaing dengan perusahaan China dan Jepang yang sudah dominan; Produsen industri penyimpanan energi baterai AS menerima pembiayaan 11,4 miliar dolar AS (72,742 miliar yuan).
"The speed of self-produced batteries by multinational auto giants is accelerating, and second- and third-tier brands are also catching up with first-tier companies. The global pattern of power lithium-ion batteries may usher in big changes in the future. At the same time, the power lithium-ion battery industry has entered a new round of investment and expansion. At the peak, the fields of equipment and materials benefited first, and the whole industry chain set off a wave of production expansion, but after the last round of deep reshuffle, investment and production expansion were mainly concentrated in leading companies." Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance Secretary General, Battery Hundred People Chairman Yu Qingjiao said.
Institut Penelitian Baterai Lithium (&II) dari Institut Riset Industri-teknologi Tinggi memperkirakan bahwa pengiriman baterai penyimpanan daya dan energi global akan mencapai 1.516GWh pada tahun 2025. Pada saat itu, jika CATL ingin mempertahankan 30 persen dari pangsa pasar dan mencapai penjualan baterai 455GWh, dengan mempertimbangkan faktor fluktuasi lainnya, CATL harus mencapai produksi 520GWh setidaknya sebelum tahun 2025. Menurut pengumuman CATL, saat ini terdapat selisih 280GWh dari target produksi.
Kembali ke masa sekarang, CATL mengumpulkan 45 miliar yuan untuk diinvestasikan dalam 4 proyek baru. Masa konstruksi antara 2-4 tahun, dan output dapat meningkat 135GWh. Perlu dicatat bahwa bahkan jika peningkatan yang direncanakan berhasil, CATL perlu mengerahkan output 145Gwh lainnya sebelum tahun 2025 untuk memenuhi kesenjangan tersebut.
Harga bahan baku meroket, hulu dan hilir menjarah tambang lithium
Di balik percepatan ekspansi produsen adalah ekspansi permintaan pasar yang tidak terduga.
Menurut statistik Federasi Penumpang, dari Januari hingga Oktober tahun ini, penjualan kendaraan penumpang energi baru di negara saya berjumlah 2.356.200 unit, setahun-pada-tahun meningkat 202,52 persen , melebihi ekspektasi pasar. Di antaranya, penjualan kendaraan listrik murni mencapai 1.951.700 unit, setahun-naik-tahun sebesar 209,5 persen .
Ledakan permintaan pada gilirannya menyebabkan pasokan bahan baku yang terbatas, terutama sumber daya lithium. Pada saat yang sama, faktor-faktor yang tidak stabil seperti epidemi mahkota baru, kehebohan pasar, dan kelebihan mata uang-penerbitan ditumpangkan, dan harga bahan mentah terus meningkat. Pada 22 November, baterai-litium karbonat tingkat adalah 199.400 yuan per ton, meningkat lebih dari 230 persen dari awal tahun. Harga rata-rata konsentrat spodumene hulu adalah US1.800/ton, sebulan-naik-bulan sebesar US30/ton, dibandingkan dengan harga CIF spodumene di awal tahun sebesar US400/ ton, meningkat sekitar 350 persen.
"The increase in the price of lithium battery materials is not new. Since October last year, the prices of cathode materials and electrolytes for the production of lithium ion batteries have begun to increase." Yu Qingjiao told Fengkou Finance and Economics, BYD, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Six well-known car companies have announced that they will gradually stop the production of fossil fuel vehicles worldwide by 2040, and all enter the new energy market. The supply of raw materials will continue to be in short supply, and it is expected that there will be no price ceiling in five years.
It is worth mentioning that there are two ways to obtain important resources for lithium-ion batteries, namely, ore extraction and salt lake extraction. my country's lithium resources account for 5.9 percent of the world's, and its output accounts for 17 percent of the world's. Lithium resources are limited, so about 70 percent of my country's lithium raw materials came from overseas last year.
As for battery manufacturers, mastering upstream resources will have the confidence to seize the market. Today, the battlefield of lithium mines is even more international. In July of this year, Ganfeng Lithium, the "boss" of domestic lithium resources, announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary would launch an acquisition of Canadian Millennium Lithium. It is worth noting that Millennium Lithium owns two Argentine lithium salt lake projects. In September, the Ningde era suddenly rushed out, increasing the price to cut off Hu, and snatch the lithium mine. After it thought it won the bid, in early November, it was "snatched" by the American Lithium Industry, which was held by Ganfeng Lithium Industry, with the same method.
Coincidentally, the reversal scene also occurred in another domestic lithium industry giant, Tianqi Lithium Industry. In 2018, Tianqi Lithium loaned 3.5 billion to buy a 23.77 percent stake in SQM, the world's second-largest lithium miner. In 2020, its rate was as high as 82.32 percent . However, in the first three quarters of this year, Tianqi Lithium's operating income was 3.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.58 percent ; its net profit was 530 million yuan, compared with a net loss of 1.103 billion yuan in the same period last year, which has turned losses into profits.
"Carbon neutrality plus new energy" will become the mainstream track
In fact, the limited production of lithium-ion batteries is inevitably tied to the country's dual-carbon goal.
In the long run, the strategy of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking will become the underlying logic of my country's economic development, energy transformation, resource protection, etc., and in a short period of time, its related new energy vehicle supply chain will cause a lot of impact.
"First of all, my country's environmental protection supervision is becoming more and more strict. Whether it is the source of raw materials or the power and production restrictions of the factory, the company's production and manufacturing costs will increase accordingly; secondly, the current recovery system of power lithium-ion batteries is not perfect, from the standardization and economy. From the point of view, there are still many problems to face, and it is impossible to maximize the utilization of resources." Yu Qingjiao said.
Under normal circumstances, the service life of power lithium-ion batteries is generally 5-8 years, while the real effective life is only 4-6 years. According to industry analysts, it is expected that starting from 2021, my country will usher in the peak period for the first batch of power lithium-ion batteries to be retired. In August this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Administrative Measures for the Echelon Utilization of Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles", pointing out that the company assumes the main responsibility for power battery recycling and ensures the effective use and environmental protection of power batteries.
Menurut Fengkou Finance, hingga saat ini, BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Tesla, dan perusahaan mobil lainnya telah meluncurkan sistem daur ulang baterai, dan menandatangani perjanjian kerja sama dengan perusahaan layanan pemeliharaan terkait mengenai daur ulang baterai lithium-ion daya. Meskipun mode standar daur ulang baterai lithium-ion daya belum dibentuk di Cina, banyak perusahaan kendaraan energi baru telah melakukan upaya.
Kaiyuan Securities believes that due to the limitations of "carbon neutrality" and resource security issues, and at the same time benefiting from the strong increase in demand for new energy, the upstream industry chain will usher in a historic change. Especially lithium iron phosphate, as the most mainstream product of lithium battery cathode, the industry is expected to continue to boom. At the same time, many upstream companies are actively involved in the new energy track to boost the rapid development of my country's new energy industry. In the future, "carbon neutrality plus new energy" will still be the strongest main track. (Wu Si, a reporter from Fengkou Finance and Economics)
