Harganya melebihi 220,000 yuan / ton, dan harga lithium karbonat muncul kembali
Menurut berita bisnis, pada tanggal 24 November, harga lithium karbonat di banyak perusahaan seperti Shanghai Chen Lithium New Material Technology Co., Ltd. dan Shanghai Qingli Industrial Co., Ltd. meningkat, dan harga industri{{1} }litium karbonat dan baterai tingkat-tingkat lithium karbonat dinaikkan dengan berbagai derajat. Di antara mereka, harga baterai-grade lithium carbonate dari Yongzhou Haoli New Material Technology Co., Ltd. melebihi 220,000 yuan / ton, dan kutipan sebelumnya hingga 200,{{7 }} yuan / ton.
Kenaikan harga lithium karbonat secara langsung berkaitan dengan perkembangan besar kendaraan energi baru dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, yang telah membawa permintaan besar untuk baterai lithium-ion daya.
In November last year, the State Council announced the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which clearly mentioned that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles should reach 20 percent of the total sales of new vehicles, and by 2020 my country The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales is only about 5 percent . Some institutions predict that by 2025, my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach about 4.96 million, about 4 times that of 2020.
The sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, driving the output and installed capacity of upstream power lithium{{0}}ion batteries to increase significantly. Data show that from January to October, my country's power lithium-ion battery output accumulated to 159.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 250.0 percent . In terms of vehicle loading, in the past 10 months, my country's power lithium-ion battery loading volume has accumulated to 107.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 168.1 percent .
The research report of CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that with the rapid increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for lithium in 2021-2022 will be 610,000 tons and 800,000 tons, respectively, with a gap of 43,000 tons and 57,000 tons, respectively. The penetration rate of automobiles continues to exceed expectations, and the expansion rate of upstream lithium resources is difficult to meet the demand for downstream battery materials. The tight supply of battery raw materials such as lithium carbonate has left some companies "out of stock".
Yongxing Materials' current products are battery-grade lithium carbonate and quasi-battery-grade lithium carbonate. In its survey summary disclosed on November 24, it mentioned that the company has no lithium carbonate inventory. In order to cope with the possible mismatch between mining, dressing and smelting in the second phase of the project, there are currently more than 40,000 tons of mica concentrate in stock. According to the resource reserves owned by the company, if 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate is produced every year in the future, the reasonable service life of the production line can be guaranteed.
At the same time, the company's lithium carbonate price follows the market, and the recent sales price has increased significantly compared with July-August. Costs have also risen, but the raw materials are self-owned mines, which are generally still within a reasonable range.
It is understood that there are currently two extraction paths for lithium carbonate: lithium extraction from ore and lithium extraction from salt lakes. The important raw material for lithium extraction from ore is spodumene concentrate, which has a long history and relatively mature technology; lithium extraction from salt lake refers to the lithium-containing brine formed after potassium salt is extracted from salt lake brine, and is subjected to deep magnesium removal, carbonization and impurity removal and complex removal. Lithium carbonate, an important raw material for the new energy industry, is obtained after decalcification. Faced with the tight supply of lithium, companies have also started a "buy, buy, buy" model.
In terms of lithium mines, in July this year, Ganfeng Lithium revealed in its announcement that Ganfeng International, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, would launch a tender offer for the Canadian lithium company Millennium Lithium with its own funds, with a transaction amount not exceeding 353 million Canadian dollars. Yuan (about 1.783 billion yuan). Who would have thought that "a journey came out halfway", in September, Ningde Times proposed to acquire Millennium Lithium Industry for 376.8 million Canadian dollars (about 1.903 billion yuan), which is about 7 percent higher than the purchase price of Ganfeng Lithium Industry . In November, Millennium Lithium announced that the final acquirer was Canadian Lithium Corporation Americas Lithium, and the major shareholder of Americas Lithium was Ganfeng Lithium. At the same time, America Lithium will also pay CATL 20 million (about 128 million yuan) in liquidated damages.
Pada tanggal 9 Oktober, pemberitahuan yang diungkapkan oleh pedagang garam lithium Kanada NeoLithium menunjukkan bahwa Zijin Mining telah setuju untuk mengakuisisi semua saham NeoLithium yang diterbitkan dengan harga C6,50 (sekitar RMB 32,84) per saham, dengan total pertimbangan sekitar C960 juta (sekitar 48,50 yuan). miliar yuan). NeoLithium sepenuhnya memiliki proyek danau garam litium Tres Quebradas (3Q) Argentina dengan 7 juta ton setara litium karbonat (LCE).
Pada malam tanggal 3 November, Shengxin Lithium Energy mengumumkan bahwa Shengyi International, anak perusahaan yang sepenuhnya-dimiliki oleh perusahaan di Hong Kong, berencana untuk membeli 51 persen saham di MaxMind Hong Kong dengan harga US76,5 juta (sekitar 489 juta yuan). MaxMind Hong Kong, melalui Perusahaan Zimbabwe Sun yang sepenuhnya-memilikinya, memiliki izin penambangan untuk total 40 nugget logam langka yang berlokasi di Proyek Tambang Sabi Star Lithium-Tambang Tantalum di Zimbabwe.
Dalam hal danau garam, dua danau garam di Tibet, Alilongmucuo dan Jiezechaka, yang diinvestasikan dan dikembangkan oleh Tibet Urban Investment, memiliki total cadangan 3,9 juta ton lithium karbonat (cadangan besar), 28 juta ton kalium klorida (cadangan sedang ), boron (dengan tiga cadangan). Diboron oksida) 3,3 juta ton (cadangan berukuran -sedang), di mana cadangan litium karbonat menempati peringkat teratas di dunia. Pada 25 November, perusahaan tutup pada batas harian.
Jadi, kapan pasang naik lithium karbonat akan berakhir?
SMM's recent research shows that from a fundamental point of view, lithium carbonate may form a supply gap of about 16 percent in the past two months. Although material factories have cleared inventory and traders have released goods, or the supply pressure may have eased, the fundamentals are firm, and it is expected that the market outlook will be Lithium carbonate prices will continue to rise slightly.
Guotai Junan Securities juga baru-baru ini menyatakan bahwa kenaikan harga lithium ketiga telah diseduh dan dimulai, dan harga lithium karbonat akan menjadi yang pertama memimpin kenaikan. Tim non-ferrous-nya mengatakan dalam risalah panggilan konferensi bahwa penimbunan pada kuartal keempat hingga akhir tahun akan menjadi katalis untuk kenaikan ketiga harga lithium. Sebelum Festival Musim Semi atau bahkan akhir Desember, harga baterai-litium karbonat tingkat dapat mencapai 250,000 yuan / ton.
Tim Guotai Junan Securities Nonferrous Metals juga percaya bahwa ketegangan dalam industri lithium pada tahun 2022 akan lebih tinggi dari pada tahun 2021. Pada tahun 2022, pasokan lithium akan meningkat sebesar 33 persen -35 persen, tetapi jadwal produksi umum katoda dan baterai hilir telah berlipat ganda, dan peningkatan pasokan dapat sepenuhnya dikendalikan oleh permintaan. Meliputi, di bawah pola kekurangan pasokan dan permintaan fundamental, kami optimis bahwa harga spot lithium dapat berlanjut hingga 2022 dan 2023, dan prospek jangka menengah dan panjang tidak akan dibatasi.
Menurut statistik Cabang Industri Lithium di negara saya Asosiasi Industri Logam Nonferrous, mulai tahun 2021, konsumsi global produk lithium akan meningkat secara signifikan. Informasi Longzhong berspekulasi bahwa pasokan sumber daya lithium diperkirakan akan sedikit tidak mencukupi pada 2022-2023, dan pusat harga lithium akan naik secara signifikan. Diharapkan harga lithium akan tetap tinggi pada 2022-2023. Pada tahun 2024-2026, tambang lithium domestik dan asing dan sumber daya danau garam Namun, karena peningkatan permintaan yang cepat, sisi pasokan tidak akan kelebihan pasokan secara signifikan, dan harga lithium diperkirakan akan turun sampai batas tertentu sambil mempertahankan pusat yang tinggi. .
