"Internal" power lithium battery
The media coverage appears to be lagging behind the battery companies' production expansion. While we are still discussing whether the global power lithium-ion battery production will be excessive in 2025, battery companies have already started a new round of production expansion. On December 8th, on the second battery day of Honeycomb Energy, the company, which was established less than four years ago, raised its target for the Nth time - challenging 600GWh of production and 450GWh of shipments in 2025. At the first Battery Day in 2020, it aimed to reach 40GWh of shipments in 2025.
Sementara Honeycomb Energy meningkatkan targetnya sebanyak 10 kali dalam setahun, di sisi lain, pada tanggal 8 Desember, CATL menandatangani perjanjian kerjasama dan investasi dengan Pemerintah Kota Suzhou; pada tanggal 7 Desember LG, yang menempati peringkat kedua di dunia, New Energy juga mengumumkan bahwa mereka berencana untuk mengumpulkan puluhan miliar dolar untuk go public... Didorong oleh kendaraan energi baru, baterai lithium-ion daya telah menjadi salah satu trek paling hidup tahun ini. Dan seperti semua jalur potensial dan kompetitif, involusi tidak dapat dihindari dalam industri ini.
Production planning, another round of "go ahead"
There are two "famous" rumors in the battery industry: one is that Xiaopeng Motors CEO He Xiaopeng stayed in the Ningde era for a week in order to get the battery; the other is that there are at least seven "bosses" of OEMs in Ningde every day. The times stand guard. Although both He Xiaopeng and CATL denied the rumors in the end, the lack of battery supply is evident. So this year's power lithium-ion battery industry has a clear trend - expanding production has become one of the main themes.
Dari statistik, tidak sulit untuk menemukan bahwa dari -CATL dan BYD tingkat pertama, hingga-tingkat kedua Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Zhongxinhang (China Aviation Lithium), Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, dan kemudian ke Teknologi Funeng-tingkat ketiga, Ruipu Energy , Xinwangda, dll., semua produsen baterai lithium-ion arus utama telah memulai ekspansi produksi tahun ini. Bahkan terlepas dari skala saat ini, hampir semuanya telah menetapkan target produksi 2025 yang ambisius tahun ini:
In addition to Honeycomb Energy's announcement that it will challenge 600GWh of production in 2025 and ship 450GWh, some institutions have previously predicted that its output in 2025 will also be about 600GWh according to the production plan of CATL;
BYD mendapat kabar bahwa produksinya pada tahun 2025 dapat mencapai 430GWh;
Guoxuan Hi-Tech menyatakan dalam laporan semi-tahunannya bahwa mereka akan berusaha untuk mencapai skala produksi 300GWh pada tahun 2025;
Dalam rapat pengumuman strategi, China Innovation Airlines dengan jelas menyatakan bahwa output yang direncanakan pada tahun 2025 akan mencapai 500GWh;
Liu Jincheng, ketua Yiwei Lithium Energy, dengan blak-blakan menyatakan bahwa tujuan pada tahun 2025 adalah menghasilkan baterai penyimpanan daya 200GWh;
Rencana produksi Ruipu Energy pada tahun 2025 adalah 200GWh;
Dengan restu Mercedes-Benz, Funeng Technology juga mengumumkan bahwa target produksinya pada tahun 2025 diharapkan melebihi 120GWh;
...
Dengan cara ini, hanya perusahaan-perusahaan ini, rencana produksi pada 2025 sudah mendekati 3000GWh.
Dalam prediksi sebagian besar lembaga penelitian, permintaan daya baterai lithium-ion pada tahun 2025 akan sekitar 1TWh. Dengan kata lain, jika rencana produksi saat ini dimajukan, kelebihan produksi seluruh industri baterai lithium-ion akan menjadi tak terelakkan. Namun, dalam konteks meningkatnya permintaan baterai hilir, setiap perusahaan di dalamnya lebih percaya diri dapat memanfaatkan angin. Adapun apakah mereka akan menghadapi kelebihan produksi, mereka semua menunjukkan keyakinan mutlak.
Previously, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Yiwei Lithium Energy, once said that in the face of this risk, the company must continuously improve the quality and performance of its products. And Liu Jingyu, chairman of China Innovation Airlines, said bluntly, "As long as the company's technology passes the test, there will be no excess production." When the entire industry is in a frenzy, the competitors in the industry will inevitably fall into a strategic position of either advancing or retreating. In the head company to expand production, others can only be coerced forward. Otherwise, there will only be an outcome of being eliminated.
The competition for raw materials is as "crazy" as the land
At the end of October this year, Australian miner Cattlin released a set of data. The average price of lithium concentrate, an important raw material for power lithium-ion batteries, reached 1,650/ton in the fourth quarter, up 112 percent from 779/ton in the third quarter. This has never been the case before. Along with the expansion of production, the "mine grabbing war" in the upstream of the power lithium-ion battery industry is also in full swing.
Take lithium ore as an example. Since this raw material is highly dependent on imports, domestic battery manufacturers have gone overseas to buy lithium mines overseas with banknotes. Among them, I have to mention the "Ning Lithium War" between the Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium Industry. When it initially planned to acquire Canadian lithium company Millennium Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium expected the transaction to be worth no more than C353 million.
But who knows that in September, the Ningde era crossed the bar and raised the price to 376.8 million Canadian dollars. In the end, Ganfeng Lithium, which was unwilling to give up, had to raise the price again to about 500 million Canadian dollars. In this regard, some people in the industry once sighed, "Now grabbing upstream lithium resources is just as fierce and crazy as the previous soil auction market."
Perubahan harga bahan baku lithium karbonat 2019-2021
Untuk mendapatkan lebih banyak sumber daya hulu, produsen baterai yang awalnya berfokus pada manufaktur juga harus mulai mempelajari operasi modal dan menggunakan modal untuk berinvestasi dalam rantai industri untuk memperluas suara mereka di industri. Pada bulan April tahun ini, Honeycomb Energy secara resmi mendirikan Honeycomb Capital, menghabiskan 2 miliar yuan untuk menyiapkan dua dana untuk pertumbuhan dan inovasi, dan untuk berpartisipasi dan mengendalikan beberapa pemasok.
Secara kebetulan, pada bulan September, AVIC Lithium juga berinvestasi di sebuah perusahaan modal, Kaibo (Hainan) Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. Pemimpinnya, Ningde Times, berinvestasi dan berpartisipasi dalam pembentukan 8 dana investasi ekuitas swasta tahun ini, dengan lebih dari 40 investasi asing. Dapat dikatakan bahwa persaingan produsen baterai lithium-ion daya tidak lagi terbatas pada teknologi dan output. Bahkan perusahaan yang dominan harus mahir dalam delapan jenis seni bela diri di seluruh bidang bisnis.
Dari penamaan hingga waktu produksi massal, rute teknis, involusi komprehensif
Bahkan dalam hal penamaan baterai, mereka harus tahu persis cara yang benar.
Before the emergence of BYD's blade battery, people's cognition of the category of power lithium-ion batteries mostly stayed on ternary lithium-ion batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. After BYD's blade battery became well-known with its technical strength and simple image, the naming of power lithium-ion batteries even began to be rolled out.
From the sodium-ion batteries of the Ningde era to the short-knife batteries of Honeycomb Energy, even car companies have come to join in the fun. GAC's magazine battery, Great Wall's Dayu battery, Lantu's amber battery, Zhiji's silicon-doped lithium-ion battery... Some of these are new names brought by new technologies, and some are trying to use simple and easy-to-remember names. To package and summarize your selling point, so that people can quickly remember.
As a result, today's power lithium-ion battery industry has become like the automotive industry. "A good name is not everything, but no good name is absolutely impossible." Even the involution of this marketing continues to who can mass-produce solid-state batteries first. In recent years, solid-state batteries have gradually been recognized as the next-generation battery technology solution that could disrupt the entire automotive industry. Therefore, in order to attract the attention of consumers, battery companies and car companies have recently begun to announce the mass production time of solid-state batteries to the outside world. And the first of them is Weilai.
Pada akhir tahun lalu, Weilai mengumumkan baterai solid-status 150kWh di NIODay, dengan mengatakan bahwa baterai kondisi-solid dapat mencapai kepadatan energi-sangat tinggi sebesar 360Wh/kg. Sedan NIO ET7 yang dilengkapi dengan baterai ini akan memiliki jangkauan lebih dari 1,000 kilometer, dan produk tersebut dijadwalkan akan dikirimkan pada kuartal keempat tahun 2022. Namun setelah berita ini diumumkan, menarik perhatian banyak keraguan. Banyak praktisi mengatakan bahwa menurut teknologi saat ini, baterai kondisi-padat tidak dapat diproduksi secara massal-untuk kendaraan listrik.
Zeng Yuqun, ketua Ningde Times, bahkan mengakui bahwa dalam 3 hingga 5 tahun, semua baterai-status solid yang dapat digunakan di mobil tidak semuanya-aki solid-status. Apakah Wei Lai akan ditampar wajahnya atau akan membuktikan dirinya, dan menyerah pada waktu. Namun, untuk meningkatkan daya saing model energi baru mereka, beberapa perusahaan mobil domestik dan asing tidak hanya bekerja sama dengan pemasok baterai dalam usaha patungan, tetapi juga secara pribadi mengembangkan teknologi baterai mereka sendiri dan membangun pabrik baterai mereka sendiri, yang merupakan tren yang solid. .
Earlier, Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC Group, once mentioned, "The global auto industry has already started the battle for battery talent, and GAC poached some core talents from LG, Samsung, and Japan's Yuasa five years ago. ". Through independent research and development in the past few years, GAC has indeed made good progress in super-speed batteries and sponge silicon anode sheet batteries.
Namun, sambil terus-menerus menantang teknologi baterai lithium-ion cair yang sulit, untuk meningkatkan tawar-menawar di masa depan, banyak perusahaan mobil juga mengadopsi jalur baterai yang terdiversifikasi. Mengambil GAC Group sebagai contoh, menurut Zeng Qinghong, mereka akan mempercepat pengembangan bahan bakar hidrogen-baterai lithium bertenaga dan baterai solid-state.
tulis di akhir
Not long ago, SNEResearch, a South Korean market research institution, announced the global power lithium-ion battery installed capacity rankings for October and January-October 2021. The data shows that in the ranking TOP10, Chinese companies occupy 6 seats. At the same time, CATL has a market share of 34.2 percent , which is far ahead of the three Korean giants LG New Energy, SK Innovation, Samsung SDI, and Japan's Panasonic.
However, in recent days, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said in an interview that although my country is currently in an absolute leading position in the supply of automotive power lithium-ion batteries, it is still in solid-state batteries. In the field, it will take at least five years for my country to catch up with Japan. For domestic battery companies, while competing with each other, don't forget to look up and look further ahead.
Beberapa referensi informasi:
Voting China.com "Really The Most Inward Rolling Track in History, 350 Billion in Half a Year, 7 Bosses Are Rumored to "Squat and Take Goods""
Die Zeit "Fairy Fights! The Ningde era and Ganfeng Lithium rushed to buy lithium mines overseas, as crazy as the previous local auctions"
autocarweekly "The hardest part of making a battery is naming it"
Yicai "Car companies get together to bet on solid-state batteries, what are the chances of winning this technical route? express
